The Household Futures project supports all other project in the better and centralised management and implementation of quantitative surveys in all the study regions. During the Phase 1 of the CRC, Z03 project successfully conducted the farm-household baseline survey, facilitating nine projects (A01, A04, B01, B03, B04, C01, C02, C03 and C06) to collect baseline farm household survey data in Kenya, Tanzania, Zambia and Namibia. The combined baseline survey included almost 2700 households in the four regions/ countries. In the next phase of the CRC, the Z03 will continue to support individual projects in designing and implementing survey data collection and data preparation as well as facilitating a combined farm household panel data collection to better understanding trends and transitions in the key questions of interests. The main questions of interests will be the effect of rural development interventions on rural aspirations, among others.
In the next phase of the survey, the Z03 will strengthen service support to other CRC projects and most importantly deepen relationships with project partners in study countries to implement on-going research activities. Building on the existing relationships, partners in the study countries will be more involved in not only implementing data collection activities but also formative design of questions and questionnaires.
Research Regions: Kenya, Tanzania, Namibia, Zambia.
Keywords: Shocks, aspirations, social networks, development projects, time preferences, agricultural investments.
Phase II of the Household Futures follows on baseline survey to implement a panel survey. The baseline survey was based on a two-stage simple random sampling of enumeration areas and households in the study regions and surveyed close to 2700 households.
The Z03 dedicated 2019 to survey implementation, conducting the baseline household survey in 4 countries, namely; Namibia, Zambia, Tanzania and Kenya. Working with other projects and with local research partners, all surveys were conducted and successfully completed on time. Data was collected using an efficient computer-assisted personal interviewing platform, which enabled real time of transmission of data from the field without implementing analog data entry activities.
Phase 1 of the Z03 project focused on implementing a baseline survey that will support the measurement of change in study areas through a panel survey framework. During phase I, Z03 supported nine sub projects in data collection through the combined multidisciplinary farm and household survey and supporting the design and implementation of additional project-specific surveys. Using a multi-stage simply random sampling, 182 enumeration areas were selected for survey implementation and in each enumeration area, 15 households were randomly selected and were administered the survey. Data was collected in all the four study countries. Using the Poverty and Environment Network survey design, the baseline household survey administered 15 multi-disciplinary modules including:
1.Household listing of key demographic
2.Education and labour participation of all household members
3. Household housing conditions
5.Shocks experienced by the household and coping strategies
6.Social networks and aspirations. Education and occupation aspirations were recorded for all children under the age of 10
7. Livestock ownership
8. Agricultural engagement. For each household, data was recorded on all crops cultivated in the previous 12 months. Productivity and value chains data was collected in Namibia, Zambia and Tanzania
9.Environmental/ forest-related livelihoods dependence.
10.Community-based wildlife management and conservation module was administered in Namibia, Zambia and Kenya
11.Infections and parasite data was recorded in Namibia and Zambia
12. Water and Sanitation data was collected in Tanzania.
13. Development corridors (knowledge and impact)
14. Exposure to violence information was collected in Kenya
15. Farmer time preferences data was collected in Tanzania
The surveys collected are representative of the regions in which they were implemented. In Zambia, this corresponds with the three districts of Mwandi, Sesheke and Sioma in the Southern region, Baringo County in Kenya, Morogoro region (Kilombero, Ulanga, Malinyi and Kilolo districts) in Tanzania and Zambezi region in Zambia.
All data is on the central data access platform where CRC researchers can access it for use. CRC Researchers and those affiliated to different sub-projects are currently in the analysis stage. A number of publications are underway.
In 2020, Z03 followed up the households in Namibia, Kenya and Tanzania to understand the effect of COVID and locust shocks on household food security and food insecurity coping mechanisms, and effect of misinformation on adherence to COVID-19 prevention strategies. Implementing a phone survey in the three countries, the 95% of the households were tracked and over 80% of them accepted to participate in the COVID-19 survey.
Finally, to further understand the effect of COVID-19 shock in Africa, the Z03 is implementing an online survey in 7 African countries to understand the willingness to pay for COVID-19 vaccines in Africa. A number of papers are also underway from these additional research initiatives related to the COVID-19 shock.
a) Peer-reviewed publications and books
Angelsen, A, Jagger, P, Babigumira, R, Belcher, B, Hogarth, N, Bauch, S, Börner, J, Smith-Hall, C, Wunder, S 2014, ‘Environmental Income and Rural Livelihoods: A Global-Comparative Analysis’ World Development, vol. 64, Supplement 1, pp. 12-S28.
Börner, J, Shively, G, Wunder, S, Wyman, M 2015, ‘How do rural households cope with economic shocks? Insights from global data using hierarchical analysis’ Journal of Agricultural Economics, vol. 66 no. 2, pp. 392–414.
Hartmann, G, Nduru, G, Dannenberg, P 2020,'Digital connectivity at the upstream end of value chains: A dynamic perspective on smartphone adoption amongst horticultural smallholders in Kenya. Competition & Change (online first)'. DOI.
Hartmann G, Nduru G, & Dannenberg, P 2020, 'Digital connectivity at the upstream end of value chains: A dynamic perspective on smartphone adoption amongst horticultural smallholders in Kenya.' Competition & Change (Online first). DOI
Tabe-Ojong, MP & Nshakira-Rukundo, E 2021, ‘Religiosity and parental educational aspirations for children in Kenya,’ World Development Perspectives, Volume 23, 100349, DOI.
Willkomm, M, Follmann, A & Dannenberg, P 2020, 'Between Replacement and Intensification: Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Different Land Use Types of Urban and Peri-Urban Agriculture under Rapid Urban Growth in Nakuru, Kenya,' The Professional Geographer, DOI
Woldeyohanes, TB, Heckelei, T, Surry, Y 2017, ‘Effect of off-farm income on smallholder commercialization: panel evidence from rural households in Ethiopia’, Agricultural Economics, vol. 48 no.2, pp. 207-218
b.) Other publications, both peer-reviewed and non-peer-reviewed
Greiner, C, Greven, D & Klagge, B 2021, ‘Roads to change: Livelihoods, land disputes, and anticipation of future developments in rural Kenya’, European Journal of Development Research, Link.
Outlook for phase II (2022 - 2025)
The next phase of the Z03 project will be two pronged. On the one hand, the project will follow up baseline households to continue the planned panel survey, collecting data from these households in 2022, and 2025. The purpose of the panel data is to enable observation across time and space on the key outcomes of the projects the Z03 supports. On the other hand, new surveys will be started in new regions in the current study countries and in additional study countries that the next phase will cover. For instance, surveys will be conducted in the Tanduma/Nakonde region in Tanzania. The inclusion of this additional study region in Tanzania will enable to study of dynamics along border regions especially in comparison to another border region (Katima/Sesheke in Namibia/Zambia) that is already part of this study. In the next phase, Botswana will also be added to the KAZA region study countries (currently covering only Namibia and Zambia). The addition of Botswana in the next phase will further provide an opportunity of cross border dynamics analysis across the Ngoma (Katima)/Kasane border crossing between Namibia and Botswana.
The addition of new survey sites and the intensification of a successful panel will require working more closely across the CRC projects and project affiliates and with new partners in both Africa and elsewhere. In the KAZA region, the Z03 project will collaborate with World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) further studying the effects of community conservation on farmer livelihoods among other outcomes.